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EsGrayscale Sees Earlier Bitcoin Bottom As Macro Drives Trade
Grayscale’s research note points to a potential Bitcoin low in September or October, arguing macro conditions and Federal Reserve policy now dominate price direction.
Grayscale argued Bitcoin’s market low could arrive earlier than the typical four-year, halving-linked cycle, potentially in September or October, as U.S. monetary policy and broader macro conditions steer pricing.
Zach Pandl, the firm’s head of research, described Bitcoin as “increasingly macro-driven,” adding that rate expectations may determine when prices find a floor. In the note, he wrote that if the Federal Reserve “forgoes rate hikes” and U.S. growth stays resilient, Bitcoin “may already have bottomed.”
The next policy decision from the Federal Reserve is scheduled for July 29. Using CME Group’s FedWatch tool, Grayscale highlighted that markets recently assigned about a 66% probability to rates being left unchanged, down from 88% a week earlier, underscoring how quickly expectations can shift.
The firm linked prior Bitcoin downturns to periods of slowing growth alongside rising real interest rates and pointed to the direction of real rates as a guide to whether downside pressure persists or eases. In that framing, forward-looking measures such as real-rate expectations and central-bank guidance carry more weight than the calendar effects often tied to the halving.
Regulatory risk remains part of the outlook. In a June 26 report, Grayscale warned that ongoing policy uncertainty could force continued deleveraging among certain crypto treasury-related entities. The firm wrote that if the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, Bitcoin could “fall moderately further” as balance-sheet pressures persist. The note characterized macro drivers as “in the driver’s seat,” while cautioning that Bitcoin could “bottom when these macro factors turn around.”
Other market views diverge. Some analysts point to earlier-in-the-cycle markers, including the share of supply held at a loss crossing key thresholds and record long-term holdings. Swan Bitcoin’s Cory Klippsten put long-term holdings at an all-time high of 14.7 million Bitcoin in June. By contrast, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, projected the trough between October and December 2026.
Market focus now falls on the July 29 decision, any update to the rate-path projections, and changes in market-implied real rates. Developments around the CLARITY Act and signs of deleveraging on crypto balance sheets may influence whether a prospective floor holds.
