Tight Trucking Capacity Keeps U.S. Freight Rates Near Records

Shippers are contending with tighter truck capacity and near-record freight prices in the United States. ACT Research’s June For-Hire Trucking Index showed the Freight Rate Index at 70.2, the Capacity Index at 55.0, and the Driver Availability Index at 34.1.

The Freight Rate Index fell 9.5 points from May’s record 79.7 but remained among the strongest readings in the nearly 17-year survey. In its summary, the firm described the market balance as having “swung decisively in favor of fleets this year” and noted that “tight market dynamics are likely to continue to drive rates higher.” Elevated fuel costs could add another layer of pressure, especially with oil trading above $100.

Capacity tightened further. The Capacity Index rose 1.5 points to 55.0 in June, a 43-month high, even as Class 8 tractor sales across the industry continue to run below replacement levels. ACT Research linked the gain to expansion plans among larger, well-capitalized fleets rather than a broad rebound in capacity.

Labor remains a constraint. The Driver Availability Index inched up to 34.1 in June from 32.6 in May but stayed well below the 50 growth threshold. The measure hit a five-year low of 30.4 in April after the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration put new limits on nondomiciled commercial driver’s licenses in mid-March. Tighter enforcement of electronic logging device and registration fraud rules, along with closures of some driver schools, has kept availability depressed. Recent upticks point to near-term stabilization, and ACT Research expects continued scarcity to support higher rates.

Equipment buying plans were flat month over month. Forty-seven percent of carriers plan to purchase equipment in the next three months, below the survey’s typical June average of 53%. Caution reflects carrier profit margins entering 2026 at levels last seen during the Great Recession, which has curbed capital spending, and a roughly six-month lag between spot rate gains and their pass-through into contract rates. Large carriers saw limited margin improvement in the first quarter due to that lag, according to the firm.

ACT Research expects capacity additions to pick up in the third and fourth quarters as rising spot rates feed into contract renewals and fleets move to replace aging tractors with the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 emissions standards in mind.

The survey converts monthly carrier responses into diffusion indexes, where readings above 50 indicate growth, below 50 indicate contraction, and an unchanged month is 50. In June, rates stayed in solid growth territory, capacity expanded modestly, and driver availability remained in contraction.