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EsU.S. Consumer Confidence Slips to 90.8 in July
The Conference Board's index fell to 90.8 in July, missing the 92.3 forecast and down from a revised 92.2, as the Present Situation Index dropped to 114.9 and Expectations held at 74.7, below 80.
U.S. consumer confidence dropped to 90.8 in July, according to The Conference Board's monthly survey released Tuesday. The reading came in below the 92.3 estimate and under June's revised 92.2, which was lifted from an initially reported 91.2. The Present Situation Index declined to 114.9 from 118.5, while the Expectations Index was unchanged at 74.7, a level the group has historically linked with higher recession risk when it sits below 80. The confidence decline comes as markets await the Federal Reserve’s July decision amid elevated oil prices and shifting rate expectations.
According to Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board: "Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward trajectory that has been in place since late 2021. The Present Situation Index weakened for a third consecutive month, while the Expectations Index remained in negative territory."
Consumers' views of current conditions softened. The net assessment of business conditions fell 2.6 percentage points to +1.1%. The labor market differential (the share saying jobs are plentiful minus those saying jobs are hard to get) edged down 0.7 points to +3.1%, driven by fewer respondents calling jobs plentiful; the share saying jobs are hard to get ticked slightly lower.
Forward-looking views were mixed. Expectations for business conditions deteriorated, with the net balance slipping 1.5 percentage points to -3.3%. Income expectations eased by 0.5 points to +7.3% but remained positive. Labor market expectations improved by 1.3 points yet stayed in negative territory.
Inflation expectations moved lower in July. The Conference Board described both average and median 12-month inflation expectations as less elevated and did not provide numerical figures.
The Consumer Confidence Index measures views on current business and labor market conditions and expectations for the economy, jobs and income over the next six months. Confidence has generally trended lower since late 2021. The Expectations Index has remained below 80 for most of 2025 and 2026.
